Combat Edge Intelligence

Haidy Ahmed vs Istela Nunes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

3-2-0Record6-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'3"Height5'4"
-Reach66"
116 lbsWeight115 lbs
Tiger TeamTeamTeam Nunes

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Haidy AhmedNow 1493
If they win+25→ 1518
If they lose-23→ 1470
Istela NunesNow 1501
If they win+16→ 1517
If they lose-16→ 1485

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1506 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.02
TBD
Strike accuracy
46%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.84
TBD
Strike defense
60%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Haidy AhmedIstela Nunes
150015502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (33%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (67%)
Decision
4 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Haidy Ahmed60%
Istela Nunes 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Haidy Ahmed a 60% favorite over Istela Nunes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Istela Nunes's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1493 vs 1501), separated by just 8 points.

Istela Nunes enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Haidy Ahmed finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Istela Nunes 33%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.