Harry Hardwick vs Kauê Fernandes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-1Record11-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
70"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Middlesbrough Fight Academy· 1598 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Kauê Fernandes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Harry Hardwick carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1639
If they lose-14→ 1607
If they win+14→ 1673
If they lose-18→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1542 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Harry HardwickKauê Fernandes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kauê Fernandes87%
Harry Hardwick 13%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 87% favorite over Harry Hardwick in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Kauê Fernandes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1621, a 38-point edge.
Harry Hardwick enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Harry Hardwick finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Kauê Fernandes 73%.
Kauê Fernandes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.