Hatsu Hioki vs Ivan Menjivar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-12-2Record25-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'11"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
AliveTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
If they win+12→ 1658
If they lose-12→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hatsu HiokiIvan Menjivar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ivan Menjivar54%
Hatsu Hioki 46%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ivan Menjivar a 54% favorite over Hatsu Hioki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1646), separated by just 6 points.
Hatsu Hioki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ivan Menjivar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hatsu Hioki finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Ivan Menjivar 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.