Hatsu Hioki vs Ivan Menjivar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-12-2Record25-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'11"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
AliveTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Ivan Menjivar is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Hatsu Hioki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1634
If they lose-11→ 1610
If they win+11→ 1657
If they lose-13→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Hatsu HiokiIvan Menjivar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Hatsu Hioki56%
Ivan Menjivar 44%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Hatsu Hioki a 56% favorite over Ivan Menjivar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ivan Menjivar's way (46%).
Ivan Menjivar holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1621, a 25-point edge.
Hatsu Hioki enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Ivan Menjivar enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hatsu Hioki finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Ivan Menjivar 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.