Combat Edge Intelligence

Hatsu Hioki vs Manuel Exposito

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-12-2Record14-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'7"
TBDReach69"
145 lbsWeight150 lbs
AliveTeamEntram Gym· 1682 avg Elo · 11 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hatsu HiokiNow 1640
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
Manuel ExpositoNow 1639
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.42
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
42%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
66%
Strike defense
TBD
2.55
Takedown avg.
TBD
57%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
54%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.61
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Hatsu HiokiManuel Exposito
165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (17%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
12 (41%)
Submission
7 (50%)
12 (41%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Manuel Exposito86%
Hatsu Hioki 14%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Manuel Exposito a 86% favorite over Hatsu Hioki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hatsu Hioki's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1639), separated by just 1 points.

Hatsu Hioki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Hatsu Hioki finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Manuel Exposito 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.