Hatsu Hioki vs Ricardo Lamas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-12-2Record20-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
AliveTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Ricardo Lamas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Hatsu Hioki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1655
If they lose-9→ 1631
If they win+9→ 1739
If they lose-15→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hatsu HiokiRicardo Lamas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ricardo Lamas78%
Hatsu Hioki 22%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Ricardo Lamas a 78% favorite over Hatsu Hioki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Ricardo Lamas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1640, a 90-point edge.
Hatsu Hioki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hatsu Hioki finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Lamas 55%.
Hatsu Hioki and Ricardo Lamas share 2 common opponents: Charles Oliveira and Darren Elkins.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.