Combat Edge Intelligence

Hayato Sakurai vs Matt Hughes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-13-2Record45-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'9"
TBDReach73"
168 lbsWeight170 lbs
Mach DojoTeamHIT Squad

What's at stake

Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Hayato Sakurai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Hayato SakuraiNow 1701
If they win+16→ 1717
If they lose-8→ 1693
Matt HughesNow 1807
If they win+8→ 1815
If they lose-16→ 1791

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.28
Sig. strikes / min
2.14
42%
Strike accuracy
53%
25.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.36
59%
Strike defense
54%
0
Takedown avg.
2.95
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
57%
Takedown defense
35%
0
Submission avg.
1.18

Trajectory

Hayato SakuraiMatt Hughes
17001750180018502010201120122013201420152016

Win method breakdown

12 (32%)
KO/TKO
21 (47%)
10 (26%)
Submission
14 (31%)
16 (42%)
Decision
10 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Hughes59%
Hayato Sakurai 41%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 59% favorite over Hayato Sakurai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1701, a 106-point edge.

Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Hayato Sakurai finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.