Hayato Sakurai vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-13-2Record45-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'9"
TBDReach73"
168 lbsWeight170 lbs
Mach DojoTeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Hayato Sakurai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1716
If they lose-8→ 1692
If they win+8→ 1815
If they lose-16→ 1791
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Hayato SakuraiMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes55%
Hayato Sakurai 45%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 55% favorite over Hayato Sakurai in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1700, a 107-point edge.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Hayato Sakurai finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.