Heath Herring vs Thomas Petersen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-16-0Record11-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
250 lbsWeight257 lbs
Las Vegas Combat ClubTeamSpartan MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1634
If they lose-12→ 1610
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Heath HerringThomas Petersen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thomas Petersen73%
Heath Herring 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 73% favorite over Heath Herring in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1625), separated by just 3 points.
Heath Herring enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Heath Herring finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.