Combat Edge Intelligence

Hector Aldana vs Joaquin Garcia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-3-0Record3-1-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'1"
40,5"Reach-
170 lbsWeight175 lbs
Torture AthleticsTeamTeam Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hector AldanaNow 1546
If they win+24→ 1570
If they lose-24→ 1522
Joaquin GarciaNow 1548
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1555 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.59
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
38%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.08
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
60%
Strike defense
TBD
0.93
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Hector AldanaJoaquin Garcia
1550202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (40%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
2 (40%)
Submission
3 (100%)
1 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Joaquin Garcia72%
Hector Aldana 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Garcia a 72% favorite over Hector Aldana in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1548), separated by just 2 points.

Hector Aldana finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Joaquin Garcia 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.