Hector Aldana vs Miguel Baeza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-3-0Record10-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'2"
40,5"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Torture AthleticsTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Miguel Baeza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Hector Aldana carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+31→ 1577
If they lose-17→ 1529
If they win+11→ 1662
If they lose-21→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hector AldanaMiguel Baeza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Miguel Baeza68%
Hector Aldana 32%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Miguel Baeza a 68% favorite over Hector Aldana in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Miguel Baeza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1546, a 105-point edge.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Hector Aldana finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Miguel Baeza 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.