Hector Lombard vs Jake Shields
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-11-1Record33-11-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
71.00ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
UFD GymTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Jake Shields is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Hector Lombard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1717
If they lose-11→ 1693
If they win+11→ 1745
If they lose-13→ 1721
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1703 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hector LombardJake Shields
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Shields56%
Hector Lombard 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Shields a 56% favorite over Hector Lombard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jake Shields holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1734 to 1704, a 30-point edge.
Hector Lombard enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Hector Lombard finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Jake Shields 45%.
Hector Lombard and Jake Shields share 1 common opponent: Rousimar Palhares.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.