Combat Edge Intelligence

Hector Lombard vs Thales Leites

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-11-1Record28-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'1"
71.00Reach78,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
UFD GymTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Hector Lombard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Hector LombardNow 1704
If they win+13→ 1717
If they lose-11→ 1693
Thales LeitesNow 1744
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1703 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.02
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
46%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.35
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
53%
Strike defense
53%
1.69
Takedown avg.
2.10
49%
Takedown accuracy
27%
77%
Takedown defense
31%
0.47
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Hector LombardThales Leites
17001750180020172018

Win method breakdown

22 (65%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
4 (12%)
Submission
15 (54%)
8 (24%)
Decision
9 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Thales Leites71%
Hector Lombard 29%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 71% favorite over Hector Lombard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1704, a 40-point edge.

Hector Lombard enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Hector Lombard finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.

Thales Leites carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.