Combat Edge Intelligence

Hector Sandoval vs Lone’er Kavanagh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-4-0Record10-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'4"
36,0"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 ratedTeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hector SandovalNow 1670
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654
Lone’er KavanaghNow 1671
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1549 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.31
Sig. strikes / min
4.13
52%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.94
66%
Strike defense
54%
3.49
Takedown avg.
1.12
25%
Takedown accuracy
0%
71%
Takedown defense
83%
1.40
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Hector SandovalLone’er Kavanagh
165017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
2 (13%)
Submission
1 (10%)
9 (60%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Lone’er Kavanagh66%
Hector Sandoval 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lone’er Kavanagh a 66% favorite over Hector Sandoval in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1671), separated by just 1 points.

Hector Sandoval enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Hector Sandoval finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.