Helton Jose vs Samuele Di Guardo
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Helton Jose59%
Samuele Di Guardo 41%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Helton Jose a 59% favorite over Samuele Di Guardo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Samuele Di Guardo's way (48%).
Samuele Di Guardo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1487 to 1471, a 16-point edge.
Samuele Di Guardo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Samuele Di Guardo 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record4-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
TBDHeight6'1"
-ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight265 lbs
TeamAurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 15 rated
What's at stake
Samuele Di Guardo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Helton Jose carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1496
If they lose-23→ 1448
If they win+23→ 1510
If they lose-25→ 1462
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1502 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Helton JoseSamuele Di Guardo