Henry Cejudo vs Marlon Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record23-13-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'4"Height5'6"
64"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Henry Cejudo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marlon Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1781
If they lose-21→ 1749
If they win+16→ 1669
If they lose-8→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1782 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Henry CejudoMarlon Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Henry Cejudo72%
Marlon Moraes 28%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Henry Cejudo a 72% favorite over Marlon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Henry Cejudo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1770 to 1653, a 117-point edge.
Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marlon Moraes enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Henry Cejudo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Marlon Moraes 70%.
Henry Cejudo and Marlon Moraes share 2 common opponents: Yadong Song and Merab Dvalishvili.
Marlon Moraes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.