Combat Edge Intelligence

Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record11-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'10"
64"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamReno Academy of Combat

What's at stake

Henry Cejudo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Payton Talbott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Henry CejudoNow 1770
If they win+15→ 1785
If they lose-17→ 1753
Payton TalbottNow 1742
If they win+17→ 1759
If they lose-15→ 1727

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1781 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.83
Sig. strikes / min
6.05
47%
Strike accuracy
55%
3.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.26
57%
Strike defense
46%
1.78
Takedown avg.
0.24
22%
Takedown accuracy
25%
72%
Takedown defense
77%
0.14
Submission avg.
0.24

Trajectory

Henry CejudoPayton Talbott
165017001750180020242025

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (9%)
8 (50%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Payton Talbott66%
Henry Cejudo 34%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Payton Talbott a 66% favorite over Henry Cejudo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Henry Cejudo's way (46%).

Henry Cejudo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1770 to 1742, a 28-point edge.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Payton Talbott enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Henry Cejudo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Payton Talbott 73%.

Payton Talbott carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.