Hermes Franca vs Jamie Varner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-20-0Record21-11-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Victory MMATeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
Jamie Varner is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Hermes Franca carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1563
If they lose-10→ 1539
If they win+10→ 1613
If they lose-14→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hermes FrancaJamie Varner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jamie Varner75%
Hermes Franca 25%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Jamie Varner a 75% favorite over Hermes Franca in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Jamie Varner holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1603 to 1549, a 54-point edge.
Hermes Franca enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Hermes Franca finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Varner 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.