Combat Edge Intelligence

Hermes Franca vs Jeremy Stephens

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-20-0Record29-23-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Victory MMATeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hermes FrancaNow 1549
If they win+12→ 1561
If they lose-12→ 1537
Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+12→ 1563
If they lose-12→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.78
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
40%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
55%
Strike defense
59%
1.53
Takedown avg.
1.11
36%
Takedown accuracy
38%
38%
Takedown defense
62%
2.38
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Hermes FrancaJeremy Stephens
15501600201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (31%)
KO/TKO
19 (66%)
15 (58%)
Submission
2 (7%)
3 (12%)
Decision
8 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Jeremy Stephens62%
Hermes Franca 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jeremy Stephens a 62% favorite over Hermes Franca in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1549 vs 1551), separated by just 2 points.

Hermes Franca enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Hermes Franca finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.