Combat Edge Intelligence

Hermes Franca vs Josh Thomson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-20-0Record22-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight153 lbs
Victory MMATeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Josh Thomson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Hermes Franca carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Hermes FrancaNow 1549
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-8→ 1541
Josh ThomsonNow 1684
If they win+8→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1668

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.78
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
40%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.12
55%
Strike defense
64%
1.53
Takedown avg.
1.92
36%
Takedown accuracy
40%
38%
Takedown defense
55%
2.38
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Hermes FrancaJosh Thomson
155016001650170020152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

8 (31%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
15 (58%)
Submission
9 (41%)
3 (12%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Thomson78%
Hermes Franca 22%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Thomson a 78% favorite over Hermes Franca in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Josh Thomson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1549, a 135-point edge.

Hermes Franca enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Hermes Franca finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Josh Thomson 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.