Hermes Franca vs Josh Thomson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-20-0Record22-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight153 lbs
Victory MMATeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1639 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Josh Thomson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Hermes Franca carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1568
If they lose-8→ 1544
If they win+8→ 1693
If they lose-16→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1501 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Hermes FrancaJosh Thomson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Josh Thomson79%
Hermes Franca 21%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Josh Thomson a 79% favorite over Hermes Franca in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Josh Thomson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1552, a 133-point edge.
Hermes Franca enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Hermes Franca finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Josh Thomson 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.