Combat Edge Intelligence

Hermes Franca vs Marcus Aurelio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-20-0Record22-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height5'10"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Victory MMATeamElite Mixed Fighters

What's at stake

Marcus Aurelio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Hermes Franca carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Hermes FrancaNow 1549
If they win+15→ 1564
If they lose-9→ 1540
Marcus AurelioNow 1649
If they win+9→ 1658
If they lose-15→ 1634

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.78
Sig. strikes / min
2.36
40%
Strike accuracy
33%
2.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.59
55%
Strike defense
60%
1.53
Takedown avg.
1.16
36%
Takedown accuracy
14%
38%
Takedown defense
28%
2.38
Submission avg.
0.70

Trajectory

Hermes FrancaMarcus Aurelio
155016001650201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

8 (31%)
KO/TKO
5 (23%)
15 (58%)
Submission
14 (64%)
3 (12%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcus Aurelio70%
Hermes Franca 30%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcus Aurelio a 70% favorite over Hermes Franca in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Marcus Aurelio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1549, a 100-point edge.

Hermes Franca enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Hermes Franca finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Marcus Aurelio 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.