Combat Edge Intelligence

Hermes Franca vs Spencer Fisher

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-20-0Record24-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'7"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Victory MMATeamTBD

What's at stake

Spencer Fisher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Hermes Franca carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Hermes FrancaNow 1549
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-8→ 1541
Spencer FisherNow 1654
If they win+8→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.78
Sig. strikes / min
3.17
40%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.03
55%
Strike defense
64%
1.53
Takedown avg.
0.67
36%
Takedown accuracy
30%
38%
Takedown defense
60%
2.38
Submission avg.
0.75

Trajectory

Hermes FrancaSpencer Fisher
15501600165017002010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

8 (31%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
15 (58%)
Submission
9 (38%)
3 (12%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Spencer Fisher72%
Hermes Franca 28%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Spencer Fisher a 72% favorite over Hermes Franca in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Spencer Fisher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1654 to 1549, a 105-point edge.

Hermes Franca enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Spencer Fisher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Hermes Franca finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Spencer Fisher 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.