Combat Edge Intelligence

Hermes Franca vs Tyson Griffin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-20-0Record17-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Victory MMATeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Tyson Griffin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Hermes Franca carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Hermes FrancaNow 1549
If they win+13→ 1562
If they lose-11→ 1538
Tyson GriffinNow 1584
If they win+14→ 1598
If they lose-18→ 1566

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1497 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1657 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.78
Sig. strikes / min
3.71
40%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.30
55%
Strike defense
65%
1.53
Takedown avg.
1.87
36%
Takedown accuracy
47%
38%
Takedown defense
60%
2.38
Submission avg.
0.89

Trajectory

Hermes FrancaTyson Griffin
1550160020182019

Win method breakdown

8 (31%)
KO/TKO
6 (35%)
15 (58%)
Submission
3 (18%)
3 (12%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Tyson Griffin78%
Hermes Franca 22%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Tyson Griffin a 78% favorite over Hermes Franca in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Tyson Griffin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1584 to 1549, a 35-point edge.

Hermes Franca enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Hermes Franca finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Tyson Griffin 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.