Hidetaka Arato vs Justin Frazier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record11-3-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
279 lbsWeight281 lbs
Pancrase InagakigumiTeamWithout Limits MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Justin Frazier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Hidetaka Arato carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1612
If they lose-15→ 1580
If they win+15→ 1631
If they lose-17→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Hidetaka AratoJustin Frazier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Justin Frazier53%
Hidetaka Arato 47%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Justin Frazier a 53% favorite over Hidetaka Arato in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Justin Frazier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1595, a 21-point edge.
Hidetaka Arato enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hidetaka Arato finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Justin Frazier 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.