Hidetaka Arato vs Mac Papalii
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record2-0-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
279 lbsWeight273 lbs
Pancrase InagakigumiTeamBattle Box· 1580 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Hidetaka Arato is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mac Papalii carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1609
If they lose-18→ 1577
If they win+27→ 1582
If they lose-21→ 1534
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Hidetaka AratoMac Papalii
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii53%
Hidetaka Arato 47%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 53% favorite over Hidetaka Arato in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hidetaka Arato's way (44%).
Hidetaka Arato holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1595 to 1555, a 40-point edge.
Hidetaka Arato enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mac Papalii enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Hidetaka Arato finishes 64% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.