Combat Edge Intelligence

Hiroya Kondo vs Josua Hernández

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-16-1Record2-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'4"
-Reach65"
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Japan Top TeamTeamInvictus No Love Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hiroya KondoNow 1472
If they win+12→ 1484
If they lose-12→ 1460
Josua HernándezNow 1478
If they win+24→ 1502
If they lose-24→ 1454

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Hiroya KondoJosua Hernández
14501500202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
1 (50%)
3 (30%)
Submission
1 (50%)
3 (30%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Josua Hernández53%
Hiroya Kondo 47%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Josua Hernández a 53% favorite over Hiroya Kondo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1472 vs 1478), separated by just 6 points.

Hiroya Kondo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Hiroya Kondo finishes 70% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.