Combat Edge Intelligence

Hiroya Kondo vs Marcos Vinicius

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-16-1Record1-3-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'6"
-ReachTBD
126 lbsWeight115 lbs
Japan Top Team· 1639 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamZe Mario Team

What's at stake

Hiroya Kondo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcos Vinicius carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Hiroya KondoNow 1476
If they win+11→ 1487
If they lose-13→ 1463
Marcos ViniciusNow 1439
If they win+18→ 1457
If they lose-14→ 1425

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
TBD
Strike accuracy
49%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
25%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Hiroya KondoMarcos Vinicius
14001450150020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
3 (30%)
Submission
1 (100%)
3 (30%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Hiroya Kondo66%
Marcos Vinicius 34%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Hiroya Kondo a 66% favorite over Marcos Vinicius in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Hiroya Kondo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1476 to 1439, a 37-point edge.

Hiroya Kondo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Hiroya Kondo finishes 70% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.