Hiroya Kondo vs Willie Gates
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-16-1Record12-13-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'8"
-Reach39,0"
126 lbsWeight135 lbs
Japan Top Team· 1639 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1488
If they lose-12→ 1464
If they win+12→ 1478
If they lose-12→ 1454
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hiroya KondoWillie Gates
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Hiroya Kondo73%
Willie Gates 27%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Hiroya Kondo a 73% favorite over Willie Gates in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1476 vs 1466), separated by just 10 points.
Hiroya Kondo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Willie Gates enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Hiroya Kondo finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Willie Gates 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.