Hiroya Kondo vs Yao Zhikui
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-16-1Record5-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
-Reach64.00
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Japan Top Team· 1639 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Hiroya Kondo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Yao Zhikui carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1487
If they lose-13→ 1463
If they win+26→ 1474
If they lose-22→ 1426
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hiroya KondoYao Zhikui
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Hiroya Kondo68%
Yao Zhikui 32%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Hiroya Kondo a 68% favorite over Yao Zhikui in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Hiroya Kondo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1476 to 1448, a 28-point edge.
Hiroya Kondo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Yao Zhikui enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hiroya Kondo finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Yao Zhikui 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.