Holly Holm vs Marion Reneau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-7-0Record9-8-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'6"
69"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamElite Team
What's at stake
Holly Holm is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Marion Reneau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1648
If they lose-19→ 1616
If they win+19→ 1588
If they lose-13→ 1556
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Holly HolmMarion Reneau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Holly Holm70%
Marion Reneau 30%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Holly Holm a 70% favorite over Marion Reneau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Holly Holm holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1569, a 66-point edge.
Holly Holm enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Holly Holm finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Marion Reneau 89%.
Holly Holm and Marion Reneau share 3 common opponents: Yana Santos, Raquel Pennington and Bethe Correia.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.