Houston Alexander vs Keith Jardine
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-16-1Record17-11-2
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
203 lbsWeight185 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Keith Jardine is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Houston Alexander carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1468
If they lose-8→ 1444
If they win+11→ 1581
If they lose-21→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1683 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Houston AlexanderKeith Jardine
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Keith Jardine75%
Houston Alexander 25%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Keith Jardine a 75% favorite over Houston Alexander in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Keith Jardine holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1570 to 1452, a 118-point edge.
Houston Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Keith Jardine enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Houston Alexander finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Keith Jardine 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.