Combat Edge Intelligence

Hunter Smith vs Lucas Almeida

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-1-0Record9-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
-Reach74.5"
156 lbsWeight150 lbs
Performance Evolution Training CenterTeamBrazilian TKO· 1648 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Hunter SmithNow 1636
If they win+24→ 1660
If they lose-24→ 1612
Lucas AlmeidaNow 1635
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1492 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Hunter SmithLucas Almeida
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (75%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
0 (0%)
Submission
7 (78%)
2 (25%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Almeida52%
Hunter Smith 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Almeida a 52% favorite over Hunter Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hunter Smith's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1636 vs 1635), separated by just 1 points.

Hunter Smith enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Hunter Smith finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Almeida 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.