Umar Nurmagomedov20-2-0
Yadong Song24-9-1
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Yadong Song won
74%Umar Nurmagomedov26%Yadong Song
Combat Edge Model · Full card
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song predictions
Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song (August 29, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
13Total bouts
13Frozen forecasts
0Close matchups
3Model / Elo splits
5Strong model leans
LockedFight card started
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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.
Showing all 13 matchups.
Main card
Main card predictions
6 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Xiaonan Yan19-6-0
Denise Gomes13-3-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Denise Gomes won
36%Xiaonan Yan64%Denise Gomes
Aoriqileng26-14-0
Kai Asakura23-6-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Kai Asakura won
27%Aoriqileng73%Kai Asakura
Sumudaerji20-7-0
Alex Perez26-11-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Sumudaerji won
62%Sumudaerji38%Alex Perez
Ce Liu4-1-0
Levi Rodrigues Jr.5-2-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Ce Liu won
33%Ce Liu68%Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Bilal Hasan10-0-0
Nilson Rojas9-1-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Bilal Hasan won
84%Bilal Hasan16%Nilson Rojas
Prelims
Prelims predictions
7 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Namsrai Batbayar10-2-0
André Lima12-1-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · André Lima won
36%Namsrai Batbayar64%André Lima
Rei Tsuruya12-1-0
Kevin Borjas11-6-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Rei Tsuruya won
77%Rei Tsuruya23%Kevin Borjas
Jack Jenkins14-5-0
Sean Woodson14-2-1
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Sean Woodson won
37%Jack Jenkins63%Sean Woodson
Long Xiao27-12-0
Francesco Nuzzi12-2-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Francesco Nuzzi won
59%Long Xiao41%Francesco Nuzzi
Lawrence Lui8-2-0
Hector Santiago7-1-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Hector Santiago won
64%Lawrence Lui37%Hector Santiago
Jingnan Xiong19-4-0
Julia Polastri15-6-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Julia Polastri won
32%Jingnan Xiong68%Julia Polastri
Meng Ding35-11-0
Cam Nelson8-1-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Cam Nelson won
81%Meng Ding19%Cam Nelson