Ian Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-2-0Record29-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'3"Height5'10"
74" Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ian Machado Garry carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1836
If they lose-11→ 1804
If they win+8→ 1939
If they lose-16→ 1915
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1775 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1796 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ian Machado GarryIslam Makhachev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev71%
Ian Machado Garry 29%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 71% favorite over Ian Machado Garry in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1815, a 116-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ian Machado Garry finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 62%.
Ian Machado Garry carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.