Ian Machado Garry vs Jordan Williams
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-2-0Record9-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'0"
74" Reach 75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamNor-Cal Fighting Alliance
What's at stake
Ian Machado Garry is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jordan Williams carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1821
If they lose-26→ 1789
If they win+26→ 1598
If they lose-6→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1775 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ian Machado GarryJordan Williams
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Machado Garry92%
Jordan Williams 8%Elo baseline: 80%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 92% favorite over Jordan Williams in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).
Ian Machado Garry holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1572, a 243-point edge.
Jordan Williams enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ian Machado Garry finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Jordan Williams 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.