Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Morales
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-2-0Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'0"
74" Reach 79"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamEntram Gym· 1678 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Michael Morales is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ian Machado Garry carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1832
If they lose-15→ 1800
If they win+15→ 1855
If they lose-17→ 1823
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1775 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ian Machado GarryMichael Morales
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Morales56%
Ian Machado Garry 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Morales a 56% favorite over Ian Machado Garry in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Michael Morales holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1840 to 1815, a 25-point edge.
Michael Morales enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ian Machado Garry finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Michael Morales 79%.
Ian Machado Garry and Michael Morales share 1 common opponent: Neil Magny.
Michael Morales carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.