Ian Machado Garry vs Michael Page
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-2-0Record26-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'3"
74" Reach79"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamLondon Shootfighters
What's at stake
Michael Page is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ian Machado Garry carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1832
If they lose-15→ 1800
If they win+11→ 1847
If they lose-13→ 1823
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1775 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1720 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ian Machado GarryMichael Page
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Machado Garry63%
Michael Page 37%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 63% favorite over Michael Page in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Michael Page's way (47%).
Michael Page holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1836 to 1815, a 21-point edge.
Michael Page enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Ian Machado Garry finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Michael Page 62%.
Michael Page carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.