Ian Machado Garry vs Neil Magny
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-2-0Record32-14-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'3"
74" Reach80"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Ian Machado Garry is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Neil Magny carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1829
If they lose-18→ 1797
If they win+14→ 1782
If they lose-10→ 1758
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1775 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1734 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ian Machado GarryNeil Magny
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Machado Garry66%
Neil Magny 34%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 66% favorite over Neil Magny in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Ian Machado Garry holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1768, a 47-point edge.
Ian Machado Garry finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Neil Magny 47%.
Ian Machado Garry and Neil Magny share 1 common opponent: Carlos Prates.
Neil Magny carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.