Ian Machado Garry vs Shavkat Rakhmonov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-2-0Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'1"
74" Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamKazakhstan Top Team
What's at stake
Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ian Machado Garry carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1833
If they lose-14→ 1801
If they win+14→ 1869
If they lose-18→ 1837
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1775 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ian Machado GarryShavkat Rakhmonov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ian Machado Garry51%
Shavkat Rakhmonov 49%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Ian Machado Garry a 51% favorite over Shavkat Rakhmonov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shavkat Rakhmonov's way (44%).
Shavkat Rakhmonov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1855 to 1815, a 40-point edge.
Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Ian Machado Garry finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Shavkat Rakhmonov 95%.
Ian Machado Garry and Shavkat Rakhmonov share 2 common opponents: Geoff Neal and Neil Magny.
Shavkat Rakhmonov carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.