Ibragim Magomedov vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-8-1Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach72,0"
230 lbsWeight249 lbs
Red Devil Sport ClubTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1641
If they lose-12→ 1617
If they win+12→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1586 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ibragim MagomedovRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ibragim Magomedov60%
Roy Nelson 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ibragim Magomedov a 60% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roy Nelson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1629 vs 1631), separated by just 2 points.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Ibragim Magomedov finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.