Combat Edge Intelligence

Igor Araujo vs Ildemar Alcantara

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-10-0Record26-18-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach44,0"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamMarajo Brothers Team

What's at stake

Igor Araujo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ildemar Alcantara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Igor AraujoNow 1639
If they win+8→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1623
Ildemar AlcantaraNow 1528
If they win+16→ 1544
If they lose-8→ 1520

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.52
Sig. strikes / min
1.93
42%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.63
50%
Strike defense
50%
0.86
Takedown avg.
2
16%
Takedown accuracy
68%
22%
Takedown defense
82%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.92

Trajectory

Igor AraujoIldemar Alcantara
15501600165020162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

1 (4%)
KO/TKO
11 (42%)
17 (68%)
Submission
9 (35%)
7 (28%)
Decision
6 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Igor Araujo60%
Ildemar Alcantara 40%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Igor Araujo a 60% favorite over Ildemar Alcantara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Igor Araujo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1528, a 111-point edge.

Igor Araujo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Ildemar Alcantara enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Igor Araujo finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Ildemar Alcantara 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.