Combat Edge Intelligence

Igor Araujo vs Sean Strickland

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

25-10-0Record31-7-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Sean Strickland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Igor Araujo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Igor AraujoNow 1639
If they win+18→ 1657
If they lose-6→ 1633
Sean StricklandNow 1823
If they win+6→ 1829
If they lose-18→ 1805

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1742 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.52
Sig. strikes / min
6.04
42%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.57
50%
Strike defense
61%
0.86
Takedown avg.
0.71
16%
Takedown accuracy
64%
22%
Takedown defense
77%
0.57
Submission avg.
0.16

Trajectory

Igor AraujoSean Strickland
165017001750180020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (4%)
KO/TKO
12 (39%)
17 (68%)
Submission
4 (13%)
7 (28%)
Decision
15 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean Strickland92%
Igor Araujo 8%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean Strickland a 92% favorite over Igor Araujo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Sean Strickland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1639, a 184-point edge.

Igor Araujo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Sean Strickland enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Igor Araujo finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Sean Strickland 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.