Igor Severino vs Jesus Aguilar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-1-0Record12-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'3"
69"Reach62"
125 lbsWeight128 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao EmilioTeamVictory Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Igor SeverinoJesus Aguilar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Igor Severino60%
Jesus Aguilar 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Igor Severino a 60% favorite over Jesus Aguilar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jesus Aguilar's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1685), separated by just 6 points.
Igor Severino enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Igor Severino finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Jesus Aguilar 67%.
Igor Severino carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.