Combat Edge Intelligence

Igor Severino vs Steve Erceg

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Steve Erceg
au

Steve Erceg

“Astro Boy”

14-5-0FlyweightUFC

1687Good

Tale of the tape

10-1-0Record14-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'8"
69"Reach 68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamWilkes Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Igor SeverinoNow 1686
If they win+16→ 1702
If they lose-16→ 1670
Steve ErcegNow 1687
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.17
Sig. strikes / min
4.64
52%
Strike accuracy
48%
4.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.07
48%
Strike defense
56%
9.69
Takedown avg.
1.13
71%
Takedown accuracy
28%
50%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Igor SeverinoSteve Erceg
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (14%)
4 (40%)
Submission
6 (43%)
1 (10%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Igor Severino and Steve Erceg within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1686 vs 1687), separated by just 1 points.

Igor Severino enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Igor Severino finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.