Combat Edge Intelligence

Ilara Joanne vs Lauren Mueller

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ilara Joanne
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Ilara Joanne

“Arya Stark”

13-11-0FlyweightPFL

1522Average

Tale of the tape

13-11-0Record5-4-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'5"
64"Reach38,0"
125 lbsWeight136 lbs
Pitbull BrothersTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ilara JoanneNow 1522
If they win+16→ 1538
If they lose-16→ 1506
Lauren MuellerNow 1521
If they win+24→ 1545
If they lose-24→ 1497

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1577 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.08
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.70
TBD
Takedown accuracy
50%
TBD
Takedown defense
71%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ilara JoanneLauren Mueller
15001550160020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
3 (23%)
Submission
0 (0%)
6 (46%)
Decision
4 (80%)

Combat Edge model read

Ilara Joanne79%
Lauren Mueller 21%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ilara Joanne a 79% favorite over Lauren Mueller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1522 vs 1521), separated by just 1 points.

Lauren Mueller enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Ilara Joanne finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Lauren Mueller 20%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.