Combat Edge Intelligence

Ildemar Alcantara vs Kenny Robertson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-18-0Record15-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'10"
44,0"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Marajo Brothers TeamTeamCentral Illinois Combat Club

What's at stake

Kenny Robertson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ildemar Alcantara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ildemar AlcantaraNow 1528
If they win+16→ 1544
If they lose-8→ 1520
Kenny RobertsonNow 1636
If they win+11→ 1647
If they lose-21→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.93
Sig. strikes / min
3.72
39%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.02
50%
Strike defense
52%
2
Takedown avg.
1.37
68%
Takedown accuracy
27%
82%
Takedown defense
57%
0.92
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Ildemar AlcantaraKenny Robertson
155016001650202120222023

Win method breakdown

11 (42%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
9 (35%)
Submission
9 (60%)
6 (23%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Kenny Robertson72%
Ildemar Alcantara 28%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Kenny Robertson a 72% favorite over Ildemar Alcantara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Kenny Robertson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1636 to 1528, a 108-point edge.

Ildemar Alcantara enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Kenny Robertson enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Ildemar Alcantara finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Kenny Robertson 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.