Ildemar Alcantara vs Kevin Casey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-18-0Record9-6-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
44,0"Reach77,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Kevin Casey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ildemar Alcantara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1541
If they lose-11→ 1517
If they win+14→ 1576
If they lose-18→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ildemar AlcantaraKevin Casey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ildemar Alcantara54%
Kevin Casey 46%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Ildemar Alcantara a 54% favorite over Kevin Casey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kevin Casey's way (45%).
Kevin Casey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1562 to 1528, a 34-point edge.
Ildemar Alcantara enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Ildemar Alcantara finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Casey 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.