Combat Edge Intelligence

Ildemar Alcantara vs Kevin Casey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

26-18-0Record9-6-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
44,0"Reach77,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Marajo Brothers TeamTeamBlack House

What's at stake

Kevin Casey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Ildemar Alcantara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ildemar AlcantaraNow 1528
If they win+14→ 1542
If they lose-10→ 1518
Kevin CaseyNow 1579
If they win+14→ 1593
If they lose-18→ 1561

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.93
Sig. strikes / min
2.27
39%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.76
50%
Strike defense
46%
2
Takedown avg.
0.79
68%
Takedown accuracy
22%
82%
Takedown defense
27%
0.92
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Ildemar AlcantaraKevin Casey
15501600165020162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

11 (42%)
KO/TKO
3 (33%)
9 (35%)
Submission
3 (33%)
6 (23%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Casey60%
Ildemar Alcantara 40%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Casey a 60% favorite over Ildemar Alcantara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Kevin Casey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1579 to 1528, a 51-point edge.

Ildemar Alcantara enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Ildemar Alcantara finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Casey 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.