Ildemar Alcantara vs Wagner Prado
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-18-0Record18-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
44,0"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Marajo Brothers TeamTeamBrazilian TKO· 1650 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Wagner Prado is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Ildemar Alcantara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1542
If they lose-10→ 1518
If they win+13→ 1612
If they lose-19→ 1580
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ildemar AlcantaraWagner Prado
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Wagner Prado70%
Ildemar Alcantara 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Wagner Prado a 70% favorite over Ildemar Alcantara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Wagner Prado holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1599 to 1528, a 71-point edge.
Ildemar Alcantara enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Ildemar Alcantara finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Wagner Prado 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.