Combat Edge Intelligence

Isaac Thomson vs Joe Stevenson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-3-0Record33-16-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'7"
69"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamJoe Stevenson's Cobra Kai

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Isaac ThomsonNow 1616
If they win+16→ 1632
If they lose-16→ 1600
Joe StevensonNow 1615
If they win+12→ 1627
If they lose-12→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1521 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0
Sig. strikes / min
2.05
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.75
TBD
Takedown accuracy
45%
TBD
Takedown defense
40%
TBD
Submission avg.
2.20

Trajectory

Isaac ThomsonJoe Stevenson
155016002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (44%)
KO/TKO
9 (27%)
1 (11%)
Submission
13 (39%)
4 (44%)
Decision
11 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Isaac Thomson72%
Joe Stevenson 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Isaac Thomson a 72% favorite over Joe Stevenson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1616 vs 1615), separated by just 1 points.

Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Isaac Thomson finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Joe Stevenson 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.