Islam Makhachev vs Jack Della Maddalena
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-1-0 Record 18-4-0
Lightweight Division Welterweight
5'10" Height 5'11"
70" Reach 73"
155 lbs Weight 170 lbs
Eagles MMA Team Scrappy MMA
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Jack Della Maddalena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1929
If they lose-17→ 1905
If they win+22→ 1799
If they lose-10→ 1767
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Islam Makhachev Jack Della Maddalena
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev73%
Jack Della Maddalena27%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 73% favorite over Jack Della Maddalena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1777, a 145-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Jack Della Maddalena enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Islam Makhachev finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Jack Della Maddalena 78%.
Jack Della Maddalena carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.