Combat Edge Intelligence

Islam Makhachev vs Kajan Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

28-1-0Record23-13-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
70"Reach75,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Eagles MMATeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Kajan Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Islam MakhachevNow 1922
If they win+4→ 1926
If they lose-20→ 1902
Kajan JohnsonNow 1615
If they win+20→ 1635
If they lose-4→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.45
Sig. strikes / min
2.47
58%
Strike accuracy
43%
1.45
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.59
62%
Strike defense
64%
3.10
Takedown avg.
1.54
56%
Takedown accuracy
38%
91%
Takedown defense
63%
0.98
Submission avg.
0.17

Trajectory

Islam MakhachevKajan Johnson
16001700180019002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (18%)
KO/TKO
8 (35%)
13 (46%)
Submission
8 (35%)
10 (36%)
Decision
7 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Islam Makhachev88%
Kajan Johnson 12%Elo baseline: 85%

The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 88% favorite over Kajan Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (85%).

Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1615, a 307-point edge.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Kajan Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Islam Makhachev finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Kajan Johnson 70%.

Kajan Johnson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.