Islam Makhachev vs Kajan Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-1-0Record23-13-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
70"Reach75,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Eagles MMA· 1812 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — Kajan Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+3→ 1934
If they lose-21→ 1910
If they win+21→ 1636
If they lose-3→ 1612
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1796 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Islam MakhachevKajan Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev86%
Kajan Johnson 14%Elo baseline: 86%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 86% favorite over Kajan Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (86%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1615, a 316-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Kajan Johnson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Islam Makhachev finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Kajan Johnson 70%.
Kajan Johnson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.