Islam Makhachev vs King Green
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-1-0Record36-18-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70"Reach71″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Eagles MMA· 1815 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — King Green carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1935
If they lose-19→ 1911
If they win+19→ 1728
If they lose-5→ 1704
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1797 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Islam MakhachevKing Green
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev85%
King Green 15%Elo baseline: 78%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 85% favorite over King Green in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1930 to 1709, a 221-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, King Green 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.