Islam Makhachev vs King Green
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-1-0Record35-17-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70"Reach71″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Eagles MMATeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — King Green carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1927
If they lose-19→ 1903
If they win+19→ 1729
If they lose-5→ 1705
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1785 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1699 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Islam MakhachevKing Green
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev83%
King Green 17%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 83% favorite over King Green in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1710, a 212-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
King Green enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, King Green 63%.
Islam Makhachev and King Green share 1 common opponent: Drew Dober.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.