Islam Makhachev vs King Green
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-1-0Record36-17-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70"Reach71″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Eagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — King Green carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1937
If they lose-18→ 1913
If they win+18→ 1741
If they lose-6→ 1717
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1796 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Islam MakhachevKing Green
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev92%
King Green 8%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 92% favorite over King Green in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1931 to 1723, a 208-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Islam Makhachev finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, King Green 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.